Economy
25 September 2022
The Week Ahead: Natural Products East, Consumer data, Nike earnings
Check out what's in store for retail and ecommerce from Sept. 26-30.

Check out what's in store for retail and ecommerce from Sept. 26-30.
Welcome to a new week. As fall temperatures arrive in the Northeast US, a pair of industry events will be gathering leaders in some of the region’s largest cities. Plus, the economic calendar is bursting with reports, and Nike headlines the week in earnings.
Here’s a look at the industry events where brands and retailers will be gathering this week:
GS1 US Innovation Summit: Industry leaders discuss strategies to advance circularity in supply chains at this free, virtual event. The one-day summit features three panel discussions, a keynote presentation and more. Sept. 29
White Label Expo New York: The entrepreneurship-focused expo covers aspects of building an online business across retail, ecommerce, and sourcing. Partake in masterclasses, networking and showcases. Sept. 29-30
Natural Products Expo East: This Philadelphia trade show features more than 1,000 booths showcasing natural products, and a chance to learn about topics in the industry. Sept. 28 - Oct. 1
A week after the Federal Reserve delivered its third straight 0.75% rate increase, a number of economic reports for August are due from the federal government and others:
Durable goods orders: The US Census Bureau releases August totals of orders placed for delivery of hard goods that are meant to last at least three years. Sept. 27, 8:30 a.m.
New home sales: The US Census Bureau releases its monthly survey of residential sales. This measure is always a focus for home brands and retailers. Housing in general is a key market for the whole economy, especially after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates this year. Sept. 27, 10 a.m.
Consumer Confidence: The College Board will release its monthly survey that looks at consumers’ intentions in purchasing for the coming months. Sept. 27, 10 a.m.
Retail Inventories: The US Census Bureau will release estimates of retail inventories. Stock has been elevated at major retailers following a combination of easing supply chain bottlenecks and an influx of items that were in high-demand during the pandemic that were no longer as widely sought. Sept. 28, 8:30 a.m.
Personal Consumption Expenditures: The US Bureau of Economic Analysts will provide its report on spending, income and prices for August. The price report is widely known to be the inflation index that is preferred by the Federal Reserve, making it especially important as the central bank seeks to bring prices down. Sept. 30, 8:30 a.m.
Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers will provide its final reading of consumers’ outlook for the economy and inflation for September. Sept. 30, 10 a.m.
Some big names in retail and consumer goods are reporting earnings this week:
Tuesday, Sept. 27: United Natural Fooods
Thursday, Sept. 29: Nike, Bed, Bath and Beyond, Rite Aid, CarMax
Inflation expectations fell to two-year lows, the University of Michigan reported.
After months of gains, consumer sentiment fell to start the month of March.
According to the University of Michigan’s preliminary data for March, sentiment fell for the first time in four months. Currently, it is 5% below February, but is 7% higher than the same month of 2022.
Driving the declines were lower sentiment among lower-income, less-educated, and younger consumers, as well as some of the highest stockholders.
Higher prices resulting from stubborn inflation continue to be a big drag on sentiment across all categories. While the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and other financial institutions figures to play a role, most of the interviews for UM’s data collection were completed prior to the SVB turmoil.
(Source: University of Michigan)
Looking ahead, consumers do see improvement on the horizon for prices. Year-ahead inflation expectations fell from 4.1% in February to 3.8% in March. That’s the lowest reading since April 2021. Long-run expectations also fell to 2.8%, which was below the range of 2.9%-3.1% for only the second time in 201 months.
The takeaway: While these readings are still well above pre-pandemic levis, they will likely be welcome news among economists at the Federal Reserve as a signal that inflation is not becoming implanted in the consumer psyche. But with the introduction of a banking crisis and inflation remaining stubborn, the Fed’s path is not clear, and that will extend to consumers.
“With ongoing turbulence in the financial sector and uncertainty over the Fed’s possible policy response, inflation expectations are likely to be volatile in the months ahead,” wrote UM Survey of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.