Economy
02 June 2023
Job market keeps booming as employers add 339K roles in May
A key indicator of consumer demand is still running hot.
Photo by Eric Prouzet on Unsplash
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The U.S. economy continued to post job gains in May, even as the unemployment rate ticked up.
Data released for May 2023 by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the following:
Employers added 339,000 new jobs this month. The gains crossed the 300,000-mark for the first time since January. That’s in line with the average of 341,000 jobs added over the last 12 months.
Retail employment remained relatively unchanged for the month.
The unemployment rate ticked up by 0.3 percentage points to 3.7%. It remains within the historically low range of 3.4%-3.7% seen since March.
Average hourly earnings rose by 11 cents, or 0.3%, to $33.44. Over the last 12 months, earnings have increased by 4.3%.
What it means for brands and retailers: The job market is a key indicator of consumer demand. If people have job stability, it means they are likely to feel more confident about spending. In the prior three months, there were signs that job gains were beginning to decelerate after months of growth over the last two years. But this report shows that the robust labor market remains intact. Even though unemployment ticked up to its highest point since October 2022, it is still historically low. When it comes to jobs, this was a bounceback month to the roaring upward trendline.
What it means for the Fed: As it has raised interest rates repeatedly over the last year in an effort to contain inflation, the Fed has focused on rebalancing the booming labor market as a key priority. This report doesn’t deliver the data that would show progress on that front, creating an environment where it could choose to raise interest rates that have the side effect of curtailing demand. Still, the Fed has maintained that it may pause the rate hikes when it meets later this month, and that option will remain on the table. The central bank has slowed down interest rate hikes in recent months, even as the labor market continued to show strength. The decision will likely be down to the wire, as key inflation data in the Consumer Price Index will arrive just as Federal Open Markets Committee members are gathering for their meeting on June 13.
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Marketing
09 June 2023
'There's a lot of ways to frame value'
Campbell Soup Company CEO Mark Clouse offered thoughts on messaging amid inflationary shifts in consumer behavior.
Photo by Kelly Common on Unsplash
After months of elevated inflation and interest rate hikes that have the potential to cool demand, consumers are showing more signs of shifting behavior.
It’s showing up in retail sales data, but there’s also evidence in the observations of the brands responsible for grocery store staples.
The latest example came this week from Campbell Soup Company. CEO Mark Clouse told analysts that the consumer continues to be “resilient” despite continued price increases on food, but found that “consumers are beginning to feel that pressure” as time goes on.
This shows up in the categories they are buying. Overall, Clouse said Campbell sees a shift toward shelf-stable items, and away from more expensive prepared foods.
There is also change in when they make purchases. People are buying more at the beginning of the month. That’s because they are stretching paychecks as long as possible.
These shifts change how the company is communicating with consumers.
Clouse said the changes in behavior are an opportunity to “focus on value within our messaging without necessarily having to chase pricing all the way down.”
“No question that it's important that we protect affordability and that we make that relevant in the categories that we're in," Clouse said. "But I also think there's a lot of ways to frame value in different ways, right?”
A meal cooked with condensed soup may be cheaper than picking up a frozen item or ordering out. Consumers just need a reminder. Even within Campbell’s own portfolio, the company can elevate brands that have more value now, even if they may not always get the limelight.
The open question is whether the shift in behavior will begin to show up in the results of the companies that have raised prices. Campbell’s overall net sales grew 5% for the quarter ended April 30, while gross profit margins held steady around 30%. But the category-level results were more uneven. U.S. soup sales declined 11%, though the company said that was owed to comparisons with the quarter when supply chains reopened a year ago and expressed confidence that the category is seeing a longer-term resurgence as more people cook at home following the pandemic. Snacks, which includes Goldfish and Pepperidge Farm, were up 12% And while net sales increased overall, the amount of products people are buying is declining. Volumes were down 7%.
These are trends happening across the grocery store. Campbell is continuing to compete. It is leading with iconic brands, and a host of different ways to consume them. It is following that up with innovation that makes the products stand out. Then, it is driving home messaging that shows consumers how to fit the products into their lives, and even their tightening spending plans.
Campbell Soup is more than 150 years old, and has seen plenty of difficult economic environments. It is also a different business today, and will continue to evolve. At the end of the day, continued execution is what’s required.
“If it's good food, people are going to buy it, especially if it's a great value,” Clouse said.
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