Economy

Week Ahead: Black Friday, Q3 retail earnings, consumer sentiment

Peak season gets underway, and the rest of the commerce calendar for Nov. 21-28.

Week Ahead: Black Friday, Q3 retail earnings, consumer sentiment

Welcome to a new week. It’s time to get the holiday season underway. But before those promotions start lighting up inboxes, America will be taking a moment to gather with family and friends, share a meal and remember what they are thankful for. While it's easy for a brand and retail leaders' mind to be elsewhere on Thanksgiving, remember to set aside time for the people you care about and each other this week. It’ll go a long way toward making the sprint of the next month seem worth it.

Events

Black Friday: Let the holiday shopping season (officially) begin. After months of preparation, brands and retailers ranging from Amazon and Target down to the newest DTC brands will roll out their best promotions and latest upgrades to the shopping experience as peak season gets underway. Thanksgiving weekend is expected to draw 166.3 million shoppers, the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights forecasts. It is expected to be an exceptionally promotional holiday season, as shoppers put a priority on savings at a time when inflation is cutting into consumers’ discretionary dollars. Nov. 25

Small Business Saturday: Shopping local will be in focus as the shopping landscape of Thanksgiving weekend is fully digested. That doesn’t just have to include buying gifts from the store down the street. It could mean ordering from your favorite local store in another town, or simply shopping online through a marketplace like Etsy or at a direct-to-consumer brand’s store. It could also mean checking in with a favorite creator. This year, TikTok partnered with American Express to launch the #ShopSmall Accelerator, providing resources to help reach Gen Z shoppers. Nov. 26

Economic indicators

Durable goods orders: The US Commerce Department releases October data on goods ordered from manufacturers that are designed to last more than three years. This offers one snapshot of demand in the economy, as willingness to place orders for durable goods is typically a sign of confidence among businesses and consumers. Nov. 23, 8:30 a.m.

Consumer sentiment: The University of Michigan offers its final look for November at the buying moods and expectations of consumers across the United States, including a look at their inflation outlook. After clawing back gains from an all-time low in June, sentiment dipped down to a five-month low to start this month. This will serve as a preview to shopper feelings heading into the holiday season. Nov. 23, 10 a.m.

New home sales: The US Commerce Department releases monthly data on new homes that were sold in October. The housing market is being closely watched at a time when the Federal Reserve is hiking interest rates, and this is a metric that is always followed by home and garden brands and retailers as an indicator of demand. Nov. 23, 10 a.m.

Earnings

Retail earnings reports for the third quarter roll on in a shortened market week due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

  • Monday, Sept. 21: JM Smucker
  • Tuesday, Sept. 22: Nordstrom, American Eagle Outfitters, Abercrombie & Fitch, Best Buy, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Guess
  • Thursday, Sept. 24: Pindududo (China)

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