Welcome to a new week. The holiday season is in full swing, with Cyber Monday arriving to bookend the Cyber Five with an exclamation point for ecommerce. Later in the week, a bevy of earnings from retailers will provide plenty of color around the holiday weekend results. Meanwhile, economic data from the federal government will provide a portrait of consumer demand, and cover both sides of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of jobs and inflation as the central bank considers whether to slow the pace of interest rates.
Events
Cyber Monday: The biggest shopping weekend of the year closes out with a bevy of online deals. Adobe Analytics forecasts that Cyber Monday will bring in $11.2 billion via ecommerce, which would be an increase of 5.1% over 2021. It’s the culmination of a promotional period that has been running for (at least) a week. Underscoring the point, Amazon started Cyber Monday savings on Saturday. (Nov. 28)
Economic indicators
Consumer Confidence Index: The Conference Board releases the monthly measure of attitudes and expectations on key economic topics including inflation and interest rates. This comes after consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, fell 5% for the month. (Nov. 29, 10 a.m.)
Retail Inventories: The US Commerce Department provides a look at the goods sitting in retailers’ stock for the prior month. In September, this measure fell slightly by 0.1% month-over-month for the first time since June 2020, but the rate remains high amid the glut of inventory that followed supply chain issues. (Nov. 29, 8:30 a.m.)
JOLTs: The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics offers a measure of available roles, quits and hiring for the prior month. (Nov. 30, 10 a.m.)
Personal Consumption Expenditures: The US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its report on consumer spending and inflation for October. The price index in this report is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, and all eyes will be on whether it shows cooling in the same way that the Consumer Price Index did earlier this month. (Dec. 1, 8:30 a.m.)
Jobs report: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its monthly report on unemployment and job creation for November. This is the key measure of the labor market, and serves as a dual-sided indicator. Any new jobs added will be seen as good for demand at the outset of the holiday season, while an uptick in unemployment may provide evidence that the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting efforts to cool demand through interest rates are having an effect. (Dec. 2, 8:30 a.m.)
Earnings
- Mon., Nov. 28: Pinduoduo
- Wed., Nov. 30: Hormel Foods, PVH Corp., Victoria’s Secret and Co., Salesforce, Simply Better Brands, Five Below.
- Thurs., Dec. 1: Ulta Beauty, Designer Brands, Kroger, Lands End, Tillys, Zumiez.
- Fri., Dec. 2: Kirkland’s
