Economy
06 January 2023
US added 223K jobs in December, Unemployment at 3.5%
The job market was hot in 2022.

The job market was hot in 2022.

The monthly jobs report on December 2022 from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed continued strength in the labor market.
The economy added 223,000 jobs for December. That’s down from 263,000 in November, but caps off a year of growth in the job market, despite 40-year-high inflation and fears of a downturn. In all, payroll employment rose by 4.2 million in 2022, which is an average monthly gain of 375,000 jobs.
Unemployment edged down to 3.5%, keeping it in the historically low and narrow range of 3.5%-3.7% where it sat since March.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% or 4.6% for the year.
Job gains were driven by growth in leisure and hospitality, health care, construction, and social assistance. Retail trade employment remained essentially unchanged from the month prior.
It’s a sign that the tight job market of 2022 continued into the final month of the year. On Thursday, the Bureau also reported that job openings showed little change in November, staying at an elevated level of 10.5 million.
The job market is typically a primary indicator of consumer demand, as stable employment brings discretionary dollars. On the other hand, Federal Reserve officials say a cooling of the job market could be necessary to bring 40-year-high inflation all the way down to its 2% level. But there has been little evidence of that happening, even as the Fed keeps raising rates. December's report shows that jobs are still being added and unemployment ticked down, continuing the trend on view throughout 2022. While that's a welcome sign for retailers watching consumer demand, it will give the Fed more reason to keep its campaign of rising interest rates in place.
"On the one hand, the Fed appears on the verge of preventing labor market imbalances from widening further, which could be realized if employment growth slows more toward 100K, if not below," Bank of America economists wrote in a research note. "On the other hand, this just means labor market imbalances stop widening. Imbalances have yet to reverse."

Campbell Soup Company CEO Mark Clouse offered thoughts on messaging amid inflationary shifts in consumer behavior.
After months of elevated inflation and interest rate hikes that have the potential to cool demand, consumers are showing more signs of shifting behavior.
It’s showing up in retail sales data, but there’s also evidence in the observations of the brands responsible for grocery store staples.
The latest example came this week from Campbell Soup Company. CEO Mark Clouse told analysts that the consumer continues to be “resilient” despite continued price increases on food, but found that “consumers are beginning to feel that pressure” as time goes on.
This shows up in the categories they are buying. Overall, Clouse said Campbell sees a shift toward shelf-stable items, and away from more expensive prepared foods.
There is also change in when they make purchases. People are buying more at the beginning of the month. That’s because they are stretching paychecks as long as possible.
These shifts change how the company is communicating with consumers.
Clouse said the changes in behavior are an opportunity to “focus on value within our messaging without necessarily having to chase pricing all the way down.”
“No question that it's important that we protect affordability and that we make that relevant in the categories that we're in," Clouse said. "But I also think there's a lot of ways to frame value in different ways, right?”
A meal cooked with condensed soup may be cheaper than picking up a frozen item or ordering out. Consumers just need a reminder. Even within Campbell’s own portfolio, the company can elevate brands that have more value now, even if they may not always get the limelight.
The open question is whether the shift in behavior will begin to show up in the results of the companies that have raised prices. Campbell’s overall net sales grew 5% for the quarter ended April 30, while gross profit margins held steady around 30%. But the category-level results were more uneven. U.S. soup sales declined 11%, though the company said that was owed to comparisons with the quarter when supply chains reopened a year ago and expressed confidence that the category is seeing a longer-term resurgence as more people cook at home following the pandemic. Snacks, which includes Goldfish and Pepperidge Farm, were up 12% And while net sales increased overall, the amount of products people are buying is declining. Volumes were down 7%.
These are trends happening across the grocery store. Campbell is continuing to compete. It is leading with iconic brands, and a host of different ways to consume them. It is following that up with innovation that makes the products stand out. Then, it is driving home messaging that shows consumers how to fit the products into their lives, and even their tightening spending plans.
Campbell Soup is more than 150 years old, and has seen plenty of difficult economic environments. It is also a different business today, and will continue to evolve. At the end of the day, continued execution is what’s required.
“If it's good food, people are going to buy it, especially if it's a great value,” Clouse said.