The Current, delivered daily.
Welcome to a new week. Monday is National 7-Eleven Day. Grab a free Slurpee through the 7-Eleven rewards app, beware of brain freeze and check out what’s happening in the world of ecommerce this week:
- CosmoProf North America: The beauty community descends on Las Vegas from July 12-14 for a B2B-centered exhibition that takes a two-track focus on finished products and supply chain. The latest goods, technology and packaging will be on view.
- Miami Ecommerce Summit: Miami became a tech destination over the last two years. On July 14, tap into the the city's ecommerce community and learn from speakers representing Perry Ellis, Pitusa, BigCommerce and Walgreens.
With inflation still under a microscope, it’s a big week for new monthly data on prices and demand. Check out the schedule of releases recapping June from the federal government:
- Consumer Price Index provides the latest reading of the government’s inflation gauge on Wednesday, July 13. May’s year-over-year increase of 8.6% showed prices continuing to tick up in the 40-year-high range, and helped prompt the Fed to make a larger-than-expected rate increase of .75%. Will there be any cooling this month?
- Producer Price Index, which is the measure of what manufacturers pay for goods at their initial sale before they reach retailers, will provide further inflation data on Thursday, July 14.
- Total retail sales for the month will close out the week on Friday, July 15, providing the latest snapshot of how price increases are affecting spending. This measure has held relatively steady in the face of inflation, so it will continue to be closely watched for warning signs that could arise with any significant deviation from recent trends.
- Consumer sentiment also gets its preliminary July reading from the University of Michigan on Friday. Last month found this measure at its record low. The economic picture hasn’t changed much since then.
Stories we’re following:
- Amazon Prime Day is here. The annual deals extravaganza is here on July 12-13. To get ready, check out our primer for sellers and predictions from the experts. Throughout the week, we’ll be watching for reports showing if deal volume remains high at a time of inflation, whether sellers are meeting goals and how influencers are driving interest.
- Earnings season gets underway. Alongside the latest government data, company earnings reports will provide important insights about the health of the economy, and the consumer. PepsiCo and ConAgra Foods are among the companies kicking off the Q2 reporting.
- Profitability over growth: As venture capital firms send signals of a pullback with the economy tightening and layoffs from tech companies follow, one message embedded throughout the cuts is a focus on profitability over growth. The p-word also came up again in a recent Retail TouchPoints article that detailed how ecommerce systems and processes that were expanded over the last two years will now prove their value to businesses. We’ll be looking to tell the stories of how brands, retailers and the software companies that power them are making progress toward that milestone of a healthy business.
Trending in Economy
The company is pulling back after breakneck pandemic expansion. Will it sacrifice the shopping experience along the way?
Amazon is in a period of rebalancing.
The company has long scaled at a relentless pace as it sought to not only provide a marketplace for commerce, but the infrastructure that enabled it, as well. Amazon found another level of overdrive over the last two years, as demand spiked to unseen heights during the pandemic and the company tried to build to keep up.
This wasn’t necessarily a period that saw the kind of invention that Jeff Bezos made an existential tenet of the company, but it nonetheless seems to be shaking out as a cycle that included risk and fallout.
In this case, the risk was not a new device like a smartphone or a move to bend the future to Amazon's will like drone delivery. Rather, it was an expansion that took its already-vast operations to new heights.
Nowhere was this more evident than the company’s logistics network. As CEO Andy Jassy described it to analysts Thursday on an earnings call, the company doubled the size of a fulfillment network it took a quarter-century to build in two years. It also built out a last-mile delivery network that was the size of UPS, which is one of the top two carriers in the U.S.
In 2022, all of that expansion ran into 40-year-high inflation, war in Ukraine and a pullback in demand for goods amid reopening. The company first admitted the problem: It had overbuilt.
But the solution is not to tear down. It had to keep expanding as only Amazon does, while still cutting back in a period of “belt-tightening,” as executives have put it.
That’s evident in watching developments out of the logistics network alone. Amazon pulled out of some areas, and canceled plans to expand into some new warehouses. Yet, as Business Insider reported, it still added 79 million square feet – a footprint that is equal to half of next-closest competitor Walmart’s entire distribution network. It is also expanding Buy with Prime, a new program that will allow direct-to-consumer brands to offer Prime benefits, and, by extension, access to Amazon’s logistics network. Another service, called Amazon Warehousing and Delivery, is designed for upstream storage, necessitating more space to be made available in the network.
At the same time, it will seek to keep doing more for consumers.
Jassy indicated as much when he was prompted to outline his priority areas. Beyond cost-cutting, he said speed is the second highest priority for Amazon. As if to conform this, he said later in the call that one-day shipping is getting off the ground in North America.
Selection is another priority area. At Amazon, that phrase translates to a few things, but top of mind is “expanding the third-party seller marketplace.” Third-party sellers accounted for 59% of sales in Q4. Beyond sales, Amazon’s work with the sellers who post their products on the marketplace is also lucrative for the company. Amazon allows these sellers to tap its logistics network to offer Prime through the Fulfillment by Amazon program. Its business segment called third-party seller services grew 20% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, right in line with the massively profitable cloud computing division Amazon Web Services.
Price, Jassy said, is another area of importance, especially with the consumer pullback on discretionary purchases being observed amid inflation.
“I think pricing being sharp is always important,” Jassy said. “But particularly in this type of uncertain economy, where customers are very conscious about how much they're spending, having the millions of deals that we put together with our selling partners in the fourth quarter was an important part of the demand that you saw.”
Finally, Jassy cited a priority of improving the customer experience. He said Buy with Prime would give subscribers the ability to use their benefits across the web, and noted that virtual try-on for shoes brings change to the shopping experience.
But it’s in this area that the tradeoffs that may be happening under the surface may rear their head again. GlobalData Managing Director Neil Saunders noted that online shopping generally is becoming “more difficult" on Amazon.
“While the Amazon marketplace is far from a terrible place to shop, it has become more complex and cluttered with a multitude of products, delivery options, and prices levels for shoppers to sift through,” Saunders wrote in note released at the time of the earnings call. “The result is that impulse buying has dropped and that more people are migrating away to other retailers. This is not yet a serious problem as erosion has only happened at the margins, but it is something Amazon will need to address and arrest to prevent further decline.”
Taking a rhetorical step further, the journalist John Hermann wrote this week that a “junkification” of Amazon is taking place, while arguing that “everything is going according to plan" for the company.
He placed the growth of the third-party seller marketplace at the center of this trend. But it also comes as Amazon grows its advertising business, with many taking note of a growing number of ads on the platform. The company also wants to keep growing Prime, and is now using content such as Lord of the Rings and NFL’s Thursday Night Football as key acquisition channels. Both had “record” signups of new Prime members, CFO Brian Olsavsky said.
“We see a direct link between that type of engagement and higher purchases of everyday products on our Amazon website,” he said.
It will have to do each of these things at once, while entering a period that will require it to be “more targeted with its growth ambitions,” as Saunders put it.
"Since its inception, Amazon has had a culture of throwing dollars at many different things to see where they led and what they could learn," Saunders said. "That approach worked well for a younger, fast-growth business. It works far less successfully for a more mature entity. In our view, management deserves credit for recognizing this and quickly responding. However, the shift requires a lot of care because Amazon needs to find a new balance between being ambitious and innovative and being more frugal with its spending – which will be very challenging."
Jassy said the changes of the pandemic made its logistics a "different network." That may be true of the whole company. Rather than an isolated cycle of overbuilding and pulling back, this may prove to be a period that changes Amazon altogether. The bets will still be there, but the risk will be magnified with fewer dollars that don't pay off to go around. As hinted by the logistics buildout of the pandemic and even Buy with Prime, they also may look more operational.
Less delivery robot, more delivery optimization.
As Jassy put it: “We're going to be very thoughtful about how we streamline our costs, and I think you see a lot of that, but we're also going to continue to invest for the long term.”
The recipients of those investments will say a lot about where it wants to head in this next year.