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Welcome to a new week. The first quarter closes out with a flurry of activity in commerce. Shoptalk will produce plenty of news on the latest offerings from platforms and retailers, and even more connections among attendees. Plus, watch out for key data on inflation and a look at holiday quarter results from brands like Lululemon and McCormick.
Shoptalk: The industry descends on Las Vegas for a massive conference and expo connecting brands and retailers for meeting and learning. Keynotes and panel discussions will feature leaders of Ulta Beauty, Olaplex, FTD, Poshmark, Savage X Fenty and more. (March 26-29)
Retail inventories: The US Department of Commerce releases data on stock levels at retailers for February 2023. This is a closely watched metric at a time when many retailers are still working through a glut that resulted from supply chain congestion, then reopening in 2022. (March 28, 8:30 a.m.)
Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board releases data consumer buying conditions and expectations for March 2023. (March 28, 10 a.m.)
GDP, final reading: The US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its latest estimate on gross domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2022, including data on consumer spending and inflation. (March 30, 8:30 a.m.)
Personal Consumption Expenditures: The US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases data on consumer spending and inflation for February 2023. Along with tracking consumer demand, this is the preferred inflation measure of the Federal Reserve. (March 31, 8:30 a.m.)
Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan releases its final reading for March on consumer expectations for purchases and inflation. To start the month, this measure fell for the first time in four months. (March 31, 10 a.m.)
Tuesday, March 28: Lululemon, Walgreens, Lovesac, PVH Corp., McCormick and Co.
Thursday, March 29: RH
Trending in Economy
Campbell Soup Company CEO Mark Clouse offered thoughts on messaging amid inflationary shifts in consumer behavior.
After months of elevated inflation and interest rate hikes that have the potential to cool demand, consumers are showing more signs of shifting behavior.
It’s showing up in retail sales data, but there’s also evidence in the observations of the brands responsible for grocery store staples.
The latest example came this week from Campbell Soup Company. CEO Mark Clouse told analysts that the consumer continues to be “resilient” despite continued price increases on food, but found that “consumers are beginning to feel that pressure” as time goes on.
This shows up in the categories they are buying. Overall, Clouse said Campbell sees a shift toward shelf-stable items, and away from more expensive prepared foods.
There is also change in when they make purchases. People are buying more at the beginning of the month. That’s because they are stretching paychecks as long as possible.
These shifts change how the company is communicating with consumers.
Clouse said the changes in behavior are an opportunity to “focus on value within our messaging without necessarily having to chase pricing all the way down.”
“No question that it's important that we protect affordability and that we make that relevant in the categories that we're in," Clouse said. "But I also think there's a lot of ways to frame value in different ways, right?”
A meal cooked with condensed soup may be cheaper than picking up a frozen item or ordering out. Consumers just need a reminder. Even within Campbell’s own portfolio, the company can elevate brands that have more value now, even if they may not always get the limelight.
The open question is whether the shift in behavior will begin to show up in the results of the companies that have raised prices. Campbell’s overall net sales grew 5% for the quarter ended April 30, while gross profit margins held steady around 30%. But the category-level results were more uneven. U.S. soup sales declined 11%, though the company said that was owed to comparisons with the quarter when supply chains reopened a year ago and expressed confidence that the category is seeing a longer-term resurgence as more people cook at home following the pandemic. Snacks, which includes Goldfish and Pepperidge Farm, were up 12% And while net sales increased overall, the amount of products people are buying is declining. Volumes were down 7%.
These are trends happening across the grocery store. Campbell is continuing to compete. It is leading with iconic brands, and a host of different ways to consume them. It is following that up with innovation that makes the products stand out. Then, it is driving home messaging that shows consumers how to fit the products into their lives, and even their tightening spending plans.
Campbell Soup is more than 150 years old, and has seen plenty of difficult economic environments. It is also a different business today, and will continue to evolve. At the end of the day, continued execution is what’s required.
“If it's good food, people are going to buy it, especially if it's a great value,” Clouse said.