Retail Channels
27 December 2022
Mastercard: Holiday retail sales up 7.6%, Ecommerce gains
Mastercard SpendingPulse provided the first look at data for the holiday shopping season as a whole.
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We made it.
The 2022 holiday shopping season is mostly in the books. While final clearance sales and returns remain, Christmas marks the end of the bulk of the spending activity for retail's most important quarter of the year. Now, with a week left until 2023, it’s a time to take stock of this year's results.
Mastercard SpendingPulse delivered first with a day-after-Christmas data drop on Monday. The headline numbers for the period from Nov. 1- Dec. 24 were as follows:
- Overall US retail sales, excluding automotive, grew 7.6% year-over-year.
- Online sales grew 10.6%, while in-store sales grew 6.8%.
- Ecommerce share of overall retail was 21.6%, which was up from 20.9% in 2021 and 20.6% in 2020.
- Black Friday remained the top shopping day of the season, and garnered a 12% increase over last year.
Results were mixed in key categories.
Increases on an annual basis were reported in apparel (4.4%) and department stores (1%).
Yet declines were also observed in top gifting categories, including electronics (-5.3%) and jewelry (-5.4%).
Restaurant spending, which happens alongside holiday shopping, was up 15.1%, highlighting a notable push back toward in-store shopping.
The category trends will add evidence that shoppers were willing to spend on discounted merchandise in more moderately priced categories, but held back on bigger discretionary purchases in an economy where inflation and interest rates are leading consumers to make choices.
While Mastercard’s data is not adjusted for inflation, the numbers did show growth despite the heavy discounting that was observed taking place.
“Inflation altered the way U.S. consumers approached their holiday shopping – from hunting for the best deals to making trade-offs that stretched gift-giving budgets,” said Michelle Meyer, North America chief economist at Mastercard Economics Institute, in a statement. “Consumers and retailers navigated the season well, displaying resilience amid increasing economic pressures.”
Those pressures made the 2022 holiday season a difficult one to forecast. Even early results have been something of a puzzle. These data points, which measure in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payment, will be considered along with other broad measures and retailer earnings reports to determine how this peak season stacked up. With many results still set to come in, the postseason analysis is only just beginning.
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Economy
11h
Job market keeps booming as employers add 339K roles in May
A key indicator of consumer demand is still running hot.
Photo by Eric Prouzet on Unsplash
The U.S. economy continued to post job gains in May, even as the unemployment rate ticked up.
Data released for May 2023 by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the following:
Employers added 339,000 new jobs this month. The gains crossed the 300,000-mark for the first time since January. That’s in line with the average of 341,000 jobs added over the last 12 months.
Retail employment remained relatively unchanged for the month.
The unemployment rate ticked up by 0.3 percentage points to 3.7%. It remains within the historically low range of 3.4%-3.7% seen since March.
Average hourly earnings rose by 11 cents, or 0.3%, to $33.44. Over the last 12 months, earnings have increased by 4.3%.
What it means for brands and retailers: The job market is a key indicator of consumer demand. If people have job stability, it means they are likely to feel more confident about spending. In the prior three months, there were signs that job gains were beginning to decelerate after months of growth over the last two years. But this report shows that the robust labor market remains intact. Even though unemployment ticked up to its highest point since October 2022, it is still historically low. When it comes to jobs, this was a bounceback month to the roaring upward trendline.
What it means for the Fed: As it has raised interest rates repeatedly over the last year in an effort to contain inflation, the Fed has focused on rebalancing the booming labor market as a key priority. This report doesn’t deliver the data that would show progress on that front, creating an environment where it could choose to raise interest rates that have the side effect of curtailing demand. Still, the Fed has maintained that it may pause the rate hikes when it meets later this month, and that option will remain on the table. The central bank has slowed down interest rate hikes in recent months, even as the labor market continued to show strength. The decision will likely be down to the wire, as key inflation data in the Consumer Price Index will arrive just as Federal Open Markets Committee members are gathering for their meeting on June 13.
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