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Consumer spending is expected to break records this Father’s Day, according to new data.
A forecast from the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics shows the following:
Father’s Day spending is expected to total $22.9 billion.
That would be an increase above the $20 billion spent in 2022, and would break the record of $20.1 billion that was recorded in 2021.
Three-quarters of consumers are planning to celebrate Father’s Day this year.
Average spending per person is expected to reach $196.23. That’s up from $171.79 last year and above the record of $174.10 spent in 2021.
“Father’s Day remains a momentous occasion for Americans to honor the important men in their lives,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay, in a statement. “Consumers plan to celebrate the holiday in a big way this year, and retailers are ready to help make it special.”
Here are a few more key data points from the forecast:
Ecommerce for dad: Online is the biggest shopping destination for Father’s Day gifts, as 43% of consumers are turning to ecommerce. That’s up from 40% last year. Meanwhile, 38% will shop at department stores, up from 34% in 2022.
In the box: The survey showed 42% of consumers are interested in giving a subscription box as a gift. That’s up from 37% last year, and amounts to the highest interest since NRF began tracking the gift option in 2019.
Top demographic: People in the 35-44 age group are the “big spenders,” said Prosper Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist. They’re expected to outspend other consumers by $100. The 45-54 age group is expected to see the biggest increase, with $57.04 spent.
Top gifts include clothing (55% plan to buy), a special outing like dinner or brunch (52%), gift cards (48%) and personal care items (32%).
The gift of time together: Nearly one-third plan to give a gift of experience, such as tickets to a sporting event or concert. That’s up 25% from last year, and the highest share since NRF began asking the question in 2016.
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Labor disputes on the West Coast could cause further disruption heading into peak season.
When the first half of 2023 is complete, imports are expected to dip 22% below last year.
That’s according to new data from the Global Port Tracker, which is compiled monthly by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
The decline has been building over the entire year, as imports dipped in the winter. With the spring, volume started to rebound. In April, the major ports handled 1.78 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units. That was an increase of 9.6% from March. Still it was a decline of 21.3% year over year – reflecting the record cargo hauled in over the spike in consumer demand of 2021 and the inventory glut 2022.
In 2023, consumer spending is remaining resilient with in a strong job market, despite the collision of inflation and interest rates. The economy remains different from pre-pandemic days, but shipping volumes are beginning to once again resemble the time before COVID-19.
“Economists and shipping lines increasingly wonder why the decline in container import demand is so much at odds with continuous growth in consumer demand,” said Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett, in a statement. “Import container shipments have returned the pre-pandemic levels seen in 2019 and appear likely to stay there for a while.”
Retailers and logistics professionals alike are looking to the second half of the year for a potential upswing. Peak shipping season occurs in the summer, which is in preparation for peak shopping season over the holidays.
Yet disruption could occur on the West Coast if labor issues can’t be settled. This week, ports from Los Angeles to Seattle reported closures and slowdowns as ongoing union disputes boil over, CNBC reported. NRF called on the Biden administration to intervene.
“Cargo volume is lower than last year but retailers are entering the busiest shipping season of the year bringing in holiday merchandise. The last thing retailers and other shippers need is ongoing disruption at the ports,” aid NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “If labor and management can’t reach agreement and operate smoothly and efficiently, retailers will have no choice but to continue to take their cargo to East Coast and Gulf Coast gateways. We continue to urge the administration to step in and help the parties reach an agreement and end the disruptions so operations can return to normal. We’ve had enough unavoidable supply chain issues the past two years. This is not the time for one that can be avoided.”