What Amazon said

When the event was announced, Amazon had positioned Prime Early Access Sale as a kickoff to the holiday season, and continued to do so in a post-event press release.

“Our Prime Early Access Sale was a great kickoff to the holidays, and the best part is that it’s only the beginning. Customers will find millions of must-have deals throughout the season that will help them continue to save money on gifts for loved ones,” said Doug Herrington, CEO of Amazon Worldwide Stores.

The company shared that “tens of millions of Prime members” shopped during the two-day span.

Amazon said that top-selling products in the US for the event included the LANEIGE Lip Sleeping Mask, Apple AirPods, Vital Proteins Collagen Peptides, and Crest 3D Whitestrips Professional Effects Teeth Whitening Strips.

It added that Prime members ordered more than 100 million items from selling partners on its marketplace, but offered no further totals.

While the release had some breakdowns of top numbers, it did not paint a full picture of the results for the event, and how it stacked up as compared to Prime Day. Here's a look at what the experts found in key areas:

Price and discounts

Deals are always the focus of Prime Day, but their effectiveness and relationship to overall prices is an especially important area to consider at a time of 40-year-high inflation.

Like the summer Prime Day before it, deep discounts were available at Prime Early Access Sale. According to Salesforce data that looked at the entire online shopping landscape during the two days that the Prime event was taking place, the average discount rate was just over 21% for Oct. 11-12. That’s a 25% increase in year-over-year discount rates when compared to the same dates in 2021. Outside of Cyber Week, this is the deepest discount rate that Salesforce has observed since the start of the pandemic.

However, the fact that the event was taking place during a period of high inflation was evident. Despite the steep discounts, consumers were still paying much more than they were in each of the last two years, according to Salesforce. The average retail selling price during the event was up 8% over 2021, and 17% over 2020.

This proved to take a bite out of buying power. Consumers purchased 5% fewer items over the same two-day period in 2021, and 8% fewer items compared to 2020.

With current economic conditions expected to persist throughout the holiday season, this could be a sign of consumer behavior throughout the peak quarter.

"Even with deep discounts, the net price consumers paid at checkout was more than before the pandemic,” said Rob Garf, GM and VP of Retail at Salesforce. “Prices progressively increasing over the last two years means consumers are spending more and buying less. We anticipate the trend of lower consumption – fewer orders at higher prices – will continue through the holiday season."

The halo effect

One way to gauge the effectiveness of a Prime Day is how it lifts retail as a whole. The summer Prime Day has typically produced a halo effect, in which non-Amazon retailers run discounts and see bigger sales alongside the event. Prime Early Access Sale generated plenty of other activity around it, as Target ran a Deal Days sale over the weekend leading up to the event, and Walmart ran its Rollbacks and More event on the same week as Prime Early Access Sale.

Running sales ahead of the event proved to be an effective approach. According to data from Salesforce, US non-Amazon sales during the fall Prime Day event were essentially flat year-over-year, growing only 2%. But in the Thursday-Sunday leading up to the event, online sales grew by 10%. That exceeded the 5% growth Salesforce saw in Q3. Compared to the same period in 2020, sales rose even more to a 19% increase.

It’s important to note that the growth in sales was driven by higher prices that are a result of 8% inflation. Consumers purchased 2% fewer items than they did in 2021 over the same weekend. Nevertheless, it appears that getting out in front of the event yielded success.

Third-party sellers

Among third-party sellers (3P), price also proved to be the most important factor in driving sales. As with the summer Prime Day, Amazon offered the opportunity for marketplace sellers to run discounts specifically for the event, just like first-party brands. However, these did not have the same impact during the fall event.

“The only real traction is on listings with a promotion for the event,” said Jon Elder, an Amazon seller consultant and founder of Black Label Advisor. “Non-promotion listings are seeing an average ‘lift’ of 2x normal sales – much less than what sellers saw during Prime Day in July.”

The event marked the first time that Amazon held a second Prime Day in one year, and was announced publicly several weeks before it was held. Overall, Elder said participation for the event was low in the 3P community, however, there were advantages to taking part for some.

“For the most part, 3P sellers are skipping this event unless they have an excess inventory issue,” Elder said, referring to the glut of inventory that is being faced across retail as a result of supply chain issues. “Others are using it strategically to boost their Best Seller Rank heading into the holiday shopping season. There was little to no media attention for this event, so sellers were definitely hesitant to participate.”

Enthusiasm gap

A key ingredient for Prime Day is buzz. The anticipation leading up to the event is what helps to create success, especially when the duration of the sale event itself is limited. But the lead-up to Prime Early Access Sale didn’t generate the same type of engagement as the summer Prime Day.

According to data from social media software company Sprout Social, Prime Day received three times as many Twitter mentions as Prime Early Access Sale in the week after it was announced, with 8,190 mentions for Prime Day vs. 2,460 for the fall edition. What’s more, interest in Prime Day increased in the week after it was announced, while the interest in Prime Early Access Sale faded. Plus, there was a generally positive sentiment around Prime Day, with 65% of mentions in that camp. Prime Early Access Sale had more of a neutral sentiment, with 79% in that category.

“The data around Amazon’s Prime Early Access Sale suggests possible fading consumer enthusiasm around seasonal promotions,” Mike Blight, Senior Market Research and Insights Manager, Sprout Social. “However, viewing this data more holistically reveals other factors that could have contributed to the decline in volume and sentiment. Announcing a second, similar campaign during the crowded holiday promotion season likely contributed to the lack of engagement around the Prime Early Access Sale.”

To gauge this, Sprout Social applied social listening, which can help brands gauge how consumers react to announcements, as well as general consumer sentiment. This is most impactful when viewed alongside other data such as sales performance and customer feedback, as well as considered alongside seasonal and cultural factors.

By the numbers

A lesser impact for Prime Early Access Sale also showed up in data gathered by market research firm Numerator, which tracked sales for the event from 44,698 Prime orders and 18,890 unique households. Here’s a look at key findings from its tracker:

Average order size during the Prime Early Access sale was $46.68, down from $60.29 on Prime Day 2022.

Of shoppers who took part in both events, 36% spent more at the Early Access event while 64% spent the same or less.

Top categories among these shoppers were household essentials, health & beauty, apparel & shoes and toys & games.

Holiday shopping was not necessarily the goal. 29% of Prime Early Access shoppers used the sale to purchase holiday gifts. Of those gift buyers, 69% say they completed less than half of their holiday shopping, and 95% said they’re likely to shop on Amazon again for additional holiday items.

Inflation also impacted 79% of Prime Early Access shoppers. According to Numerator, 29% say they waited for the sale to purchase an item at a discount, while 26% passed on a good deal because it wasn't a necessity.

GMV estimated at $8 billion

While Amazon did not disclose its overall numbers, Bank of America Securities has released an estimate of the gross merchandise value (GMV) for Prime Early Access Sale that trailed the summer Prime Day.

BoAS Analyst Justin Post estimates the GMV for the two-day event at $8 billion. That's a 25% decline from the summer event, which was estimated at $10.7 billion. The company estimate revenue at $5.7 billion in revenue, compared with $7.5 billion in July.

Post points out that the October sale was not branded as a full Prime Day.

“Ultimately, we view this Early Access event as incrementally beneficial, as both a branding event for Prime and potentially smoothing holiday demand aiding with logistics,” Post said in the note.

This story was updated at 5 p.m. on 10/17/22 to include estimates from Bank of America Securities.