Research
18 May 2022
Shoppers are returning to pre-pandemic habits
The Tradeswell InFORM Report provides data on consumer demand for the first quarter of 2022.

(Illustration by Tradeswell)
The Tradeswell InFORM Report provides data on consumer demand for the first quarter of 2022.
(Illustration by Tradeswell)
Welcome to Data File. In this weekly feature, The Current shares key findings shaping the ecommerce landscape. This week, we're sharing a section from Tradeswell's InFORM Report Q1 2022, which provides insights on ecommerce finance, operations, retail and marketing. Download the full report here.
We broke down our consumer demand metric based on industries with the largest demand growth and decline. Investigating consumer demand trends allows you to understand how shoppers are shifting their buying habits, better predict sales, and make informed decisions around advertising and inventory.
Based on search term rankings and the volume of search terms, we identified the industries with the largest growth and decreases in consumer demand, along with how shopping trends are pivoting, as we emerge from the pandemic.
The Industrial and Scientific category, which includes rapid COVID tests and face masks, had the highest YoY growth rate from Q1 2021 to Q1 2022 at 405%. This correlates with COVID infection patterns. January 2022 saw the highest spike in COVID cases, likely causing the increased demand for tests and masks. Baby is another category that increased in consumer demand with a 286% increase in growth YoY in Q1 2022. Early in the pandemic, many experts believed there would be a baby boom with more people staying home. Instead, birth rates dropped in 2020. Based on our data and supporting outside research, we expect to see a rise in births in the coming year. Bank of America found that pregnancy test sales are up 13% YoY since 2020—a strong indication that there will be more births in 2022.
(Chart by Tradeswell)
With more people returning to offices, it comes as no surprise that sales of products in the Office Products category grew nearly 34% YoY in Q1 2022. According to a study by Microsoft, 50% of leaders say they already require or plan to require employees to return to in-person work full-time in the next year. Major companies, including Microsoft, Apple, Ford, and Wells Fargo, have all announced they will require employees to be back in the office on at least hybrid models—driving increased demand for office supplies.
(Chart by Tradeswell)
While many pandemic-driven online habits are here to stay, our findings suggest that shoppers are returning to physical stores for groceries.
Online consumer demand for groceries decreased 79% YoY. The availability of vaccines and drop in mask mandates have made shoppers feel more comfortable browsing for groceries in an aisle rather than from their couch. Another factor contributing to the drop in online grocery shopping is the increase in grocery prices due to the war in Ukraine. In-person shopping is less convenient, but it allows people to easily compare prices and products, and there’s no delivery and tip fee on top of the bill.
Remember when baking sourdough bread was all the rage? A survey by Lending Tree found that six out of ten Americans picked up a new hobby during the pandemic, but the return to pre-pandemic lifestyles has resulted in people abandoning these new activities. Arts, Crafts, and Sewing saw a 63% decline in consumer demand YoY, and Musical Instruments saw a 45% decline in consumer demand YoY. People are also spending less on Home and Garden products as they spend more time out of their homes.
Retail media networks must drive sales incrementality, a new report from the Association of National Advertisers states.
Retail media networks are creating a new layer to the relationship between brands and retailers, and a new report indicates that brands in particular are still navigating the growing pains.
The last two years brought fast growth of retail media networks, as retailers recognized the value of providing advertising opportunities through ecommerce marketplaces that grew rapidly during the pandemic, and the value of the first-party data they possessed in a world where third-party cookies and IDFA are becoming less valuable tools. For a historically low-margin business like retail, digital advertising also presents an opportunity for a high-margin business line of 50-70%.
Brands have proven to be eager adopters as they sought new ways to reach customers in this environment, as well. According to eMarketer, ad revenue from retail media networks will reach $52 billion in 2023 and $61 billion in 2024. Over the next two years, retail media will account for one in five digital ad dollars spent by marketers. The spend is only expected to grow. According to a survey from the Association of National Advertisers (ANA), 73% of brands said they expect to be spending somewhat or significantly more on retail media in the future than they do today.
However, this proliferation has also created “more marketing decisionmaking complexity for advertisers,” ANA CEO Bob Liodice said in a new report.
The need to navigate multiple networks and still-developing tools to maximize the opportunity presented by retail media is leading to a multitude of approaches. Layer on top of that the fact that brands are both selling goods and advertising through retailers, and it’s clear the landscape is being reshaped.
A recent report from the Association of National Advertisers uncovered the areas where fault lines may emerge under the surface:
The results underscore key areas where relationships between brands and retailers can be strengthened.
Sales vs. growth. Retail media must be able to drive both conversions of a single sale in the lower funnel, and brand equity growth in the mid- to upper-funnel.
As one respondent put it, "The jury is still out on if the RMNs are truly driving sales incrementality."
This also has implications for how a brand is budgeting retail media. Some brands are shifting dollars from shopper marketing, brand marketing, and trade spending, which could put the emphasis on short-term sales. But as another respondent put it, "There is concern that while attribution shows RMNs are driving brand sales, they are not necessarily driving brand growth. This is especially concerning where incremental RMN spending is being sourced from brand building budgets."
Standard measurement. Brands want to see an improvement in transparency in measurement. They also want results to be measured in the same ways across platforms. Further, brands believe retail media networks are not fully optimized for their KPIs.
This all leaves room for retailers to show they truly understand what brands are seeking from retail media, and show how they are delivering, all while reducing complexity.
As the report put it, “The next phase of growth for RMNs and value creation for brands will be through RMNs assuming shared responsibility with advertisers for driving brand growth, and demonstrating the ability of their platforms to drive incrementality and positive ROAS for brands. In other words, the next stage of growth will be driven by results versus relationships.”